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The cabin is almost full, and the highest bidder wins, the lowest bidder gets rid of it | Maritime export logistics
May 22,2025
Shipping prices tripled: a quarter's worth in half a month
"US $2,250 in early May and US $9,100 in mid-June, which is an even bigger increase than during the epidemic!" The lament of Shi Jiaqi, a head cargo director in Shanghai, opened up a scene of madness in the US-bound shipping market.
By late May, quotations for a 40-foot container on the US West route in Shanghai had soared to $3,100 from the "floor price" at the beginning of the month, while ship companies' offers in mid-June reached $9,100 - representing a 20 per cent increase in half a month and a threefold increase from the average price at the starting of May.
"Actually there's a price increase for a cabin!" Coupled with port surcharges and hidden costs, a single container freight price could top $10,000 by late June, Shijiaqi revealed. At present, "one cabin is difficult to find" has become the norm, the dumping rate has soared, and cargo carriers are busy "grabing spaces and fighting for speed" every day.
Tariffs game causes a "90-day life or death": a rush for supplies ignites a capacity famine
The tariff binge was triggered by the sharp fluctuations in tariff policies between China and the United States. On May 14, China and the United States adjusted their tariff measures in tandem: the original high tariff was doubled to 10%, but the policy direction was uncertain after 90 days. This is like opening a "window of limited-time offers."
Stagnant shipments surged: orders backlogged due to high tariffs were concentrated in April;
Purchasers need to complete the "production + transportation" double cycle by early July to ensure arrival in Hong Kong within 90 days.
Under the dual pressure, the Shanghai Export Container Comprehensive Freight Index (SCFI) soared 10% on May 16, and the US West / US East route freight jumped 31.7% and 22% respectively. Industry insiders have revealed:“Want to catch a boat at the end of May? Shipping prices must be increased by 20% -30% on the index basis!”
Shipping companies' ground pricing: From "secured cabins" to "all-routes" capacity imbalances have become a sharp catch for shipping companies:
Temporary redeployments are lagging: ships transferred to the European route in the past take time to return, and the short-term capacity gap reaches 20%.
Hunger marketing strategy: The leading shipbuilders suspended empty shifts and opened more overtime ships, but gave priority to protecting long-term customers, and freight prices in the spot market were pushed to "sky prices."
Dentsu predicts that the US 40-foot cabinet length price may reach 6,000 US dollars in June, and the spot price may double. The knock-on effect is that shipbuilders are diverting capacity from other routes to the US, triggering a global increase in freight prices, with offers for European and Southeast Asian routes having recently risen 15% -20%.
The industry behind the carnival: Some made a profit, others "made a profit" Boat companies were the biggest winners.
Internal data from a listed airline company showed that U.S. carrier unit gross profit surged 250 percent in May from a month earlier, and the share price rose 18 percent during the week. But the lower and middle rivers were stuck in both ice and fire:
Freight forwarders are struggling to survive: Shi Jiaqi said with a bitter smile that although business volume increased by 20% in half a month, ship companies made prices transparent and customers competitively compared prices, and profits were compressed to "less than 5%," and down payment pressure increased sharply.
Foreign trade enterprises are betting on the window period: Wu Qingfen, a small product giant in Yiwu, has opened three production lines, "US inventories have bottomed out, and June-July is the golden period to restock." Ali International Station data show that the tariff adjustment the next day the United States special orders rose by 120% month over month, the platform is preparing for a big promotion in June "grab the next 3 months of goods."
Beware of a "fake boom": After the party or now a demand fault There are concerns underneath the party.
Port of Los Angeles data shows imports have hit a record high in the first four months of 2025, overstating some future demand.
Trade tracker Vizion pointed out that the current number of bookings from China to the US has doubled month-on-month, but is still down 13% year-on-year, and the US consumer lacks policy incentives, "If tariffs rise after 90 days, it may trigger a wave of cancellations." "This surge is a short-term pulse driven by sentiment."
Chen Yang, a maritime website, cautioned that the freight price bubble may gradually subside after July, while high freight prices transmitted to final consumption, which may inhibit the willingness of US domestic purchasers. "The real test will be the end of the third quarter."
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