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Regarding this year's shipping market, Yang Ming and Wan Hai revealed their latest views!
Feb 17,2025
Recently, Cai Fengming, chairman of Yang Ming Shipping, and Xie Fulong, general manager of Wan Hai Shipping, both said that 2024 will be a year full of uncertainty. Although a ceasefire agreement has been reached, whether the war can be completely ended and ships can resume sailing through the Suez Canal is still unknown. At the same time, the re-imposition of tariffs and protectionism by the United States has added more uncertainty to the global supply chain. In the first half of the year, it is necessary to carefully observe and respond to various changes.
The long-term price negotiation for the U.S. line, which is crucial for shipping companies, is about to begin. Xie Fulong pointed out that the negotiation atmosphere this year is better than that of the first half of last year. At present, the price of the U.S. West Coast line for large customers is about 2,000 U.S. dollars per 40-foot container and about 2,500 U.S. dollars for small and medium-sized customers. It is expected that the long-term price will be better than last year. Last year, the long-term freight rate of the U.S. West Cost line was roughly between 1,200 U.S. dollars and 1,500 U.S dollars. He also mentioned that the current rental market rent is high, indicating that the overall supply of the ship market is tight, so there is no need to be too pessimistic about the market situation.
Cai Fengming stressed that the shipping industry faces three major challenges this year: geopolitics, climate change, and AI technology. The signing of a ceasefire agreement in the Hach conflict is good for geopolitics and world peace, but it is a greater challenge for shipping companies. In the first half of the year, we will carefully observe the future layout and route planning of the fleet, which will also bring new challenges to the supply and demand of sea freight. He pointed out that freight rates are determined by market supply and demand. If supply exceeds demand, such as after the Red Sea incident, the increase in capacity may affect the response and adjustment of shipping companies to freight charges, which will affect the entire market.
Xie Fufeng also stressed that there are still many market uncertainties, and there are no signs yet that European and Mediterranean routes will resume flights to the Red Sea. Trump's tariff policy has had an impact on the shipping industry, and the main source of shipments is Chinese Mainland. The US has imposed a 10% tariff on China, and the flow of goods may decrease. He believes that the impact of the postponement of the US tariffs on Mexico by one month still needs to be observed. The decline in China's shipments to Central and South America in the fourth quarter of last year was affected by tariffs. The peak season in Central and South America is in the second quarter, which can be used as an observation indicator this year.
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