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Steady growth! The volume of containers sent from China to the United States has reached a peak in nearly 20 months!
Feb 21,2024
US media freightwaves recently reported that China's recent macroeconomic and trade data show some seemingly contradictory phenomena.
Despite a slowdown in industrial activity, some impact on consumer confidence, and volatile stock markets, China's seaborne container shipments to the United States reached their highest level since May 2022.
From all Chinese ports by ship departure date
Sea Container Throughput Index to All U.S. Ports ▲
Part of the reason for this surge in freight traffic can be attributed to the traditional peak season effect before the Spring Festival.
During this period, factories in China's coastal areas will usher in a production peak, a large number of goods will be transported to the port, and then workers will return home for long holidays. However, compared with the 2023 Spring Festival period, this year's freight peak performance is extremely prominent, and the annual import volume also showed a steady upward trend.
The article said that although China's macroeconomic situation is full of uncertainties, such as the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) contracted for the fourth consecutive month in January, the container freight volume from China to the United States has shown steady growth.
The increase appears to have been driven more by U.S. importers fighting to replenish inventories and cope with higher-than-expected retail sales than by a faster expansion in manufacturing activity.
In fact, the U.S. inventory-to-sales ratio fell to 1.37 in November 2023, well below the pre-epidemic baseline level.
Retail sales, meanwhile, rose 4.8 per cent year-on-year to $709 billion, outpacing the 3.3 per cent annual increase in overall GDP in the fourth quarter of the same year. Together, these factors have contributed to an increase in transport demand, which in turn has created a favourable business environment for transport suppliers.
From Shanghai by ship departure date
Sea Container Throughput Index to All Ports Worldwide ▲
in addition,Houthi armedTerrorist attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea resulted in the diversion of shipping from the Suez Canal, further prolonging transit times and reducing the available capacity of container ships.
This change, combined with the increase in freight volume from China, caused the trans-Pacific east-bound spot freight rate to climb to a level of more than $4500 per 40-foot container.
Robinson CEO Dave Bozeman also talked about the impact of the crisis on global supply chains and container rates during a recent earnings call.
He said: "Due to the ongoing conflict in the Red Sea and the low water level of the Panama Canal, global supply chains are facing challenges from disruptions and ship diversions. This has led to longer shipping times and put pressure on global maritime capacity. While Asia-Europe routes have been the most affected, the impact is gradually spreading to other routes as shipping companies adjust their routes to respond to changes in demand."
From Shanghai by ship departure date
Sea Container Throughput Index to All Ports Worldwide ▲
As a result, ocean freight rates on several trade routes, including Asia to Europe and Asia to North America, increased significantly in the first quarter of 2023. And, with disruptions in the Red Sea still ongoing and no clear timetable for resolution, the tight capacity and rising in stock prices are expected to continue at least until after the Chinese New Year.
Finally, accordingPort of Los AngelesAccording to PortOptimizer data, compared with the same period in 2023, the TEU volume in week 6 increased by 38.6 (from 75801 TEU to 105076 TEU). This shows that the volume has increased compared with last year, and there is reason to believe that the volume will continue to increase in the future.
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