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The Red Sea crisis has been going on for three months and there is no end in sight.
Feb 21,2024
In the three months since the Red Sea Interruption began, things seem to be moving towards a more intense and broader confrontation with seafarers, on ships still operating in the Red Sea, and nowIt is at greater risk than when the Houthi movement first announced its aggressive policy.
According to Ranslem Corey, CEO of Dryad Global:"It was a fun weekend." Although"RubyMar bulk carrier sinks"The news will be frustrating, but Ranslem said that at least"The crew is reported to be safe."and added."It was the first ship to sink as a result of a Houthi attack".
Principal Analyst, Senata CorporationPeter SanderAcknowledging the attack against the ship, he divided the conflict into two parts:"Firefighting and disruption of global supply chains。”
First, the safe passage of the Red Sea and Suez routes was not re-established in the "crossfire", and the trade from the Suez route to the longer Cape route appeared to be completed, albeit at a higher rate.
Houthi leaders have vowed to target ships bound for Israel or whose owners support Israel's actions against Palestinians in Gaza. The Houthi operation caused the merchant ship to make a detour to the Horn of Africa, adding about 10 days to the typical voyage from Asia to Europe.
In response to the Houthi attacks, the United States and its allies, mainly the United Kingdom, targeted the missile launch capabilities of the Houthis, but did little to prevent the attacks.
This weekend alone, Houthi spokesman Yahya Sare claimed that Yemeni forces attacked two British ships, including the Rubimar and Polukas, and shot down a US MQ9 Predator drone.
Meanwhile, just as the Houthi missiles were targeting British ships,S. Central Command reports success in protecting merchant ships.
"On February 17 between 3 and 8 p.m. (Sana'a time), CENTCOM successfully conducted five self-defense strikes against three mobile anti-ship cruise missiles, one unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) and one unmanned surface vehicle (USV) in the Iranian-backed Houthi-controlled area of Yemen," CENTCOM reported on X.
Perhaps more worryingly, CENTCOM also reported that it marked an escalation in the capabilities of the Houthis, with the US military noting: "This is the first time since the attack began on October 23 that the Houthis have been observed using an unmanned submarine."
Despite the events of last weekend, Ranslem believe:"At this point, the (allied) military operation seems to be effective to some extent, because we have seen a significant decline in the number of attacks on ships in the past few weeks. However, commercial shipping in the region still faces significant threats.。”
As a result, Ranslem expressed surprise that ship operators continue to "risk" crews, vessels and cargo in the region.
Dryad Global is sceptical about the need for dialogue with the Houthi movement as a means of conflict resolution:"I don't know if the negotiations with the Houthis and the Iranians are effective at this point because it's not motivated by the economy, it's motivated by the events in Gaza. There are some secret negotiations going on at the moment, I believe, through other indirect third parties, which is usually the case in this。”
Because of the limited scope for conflict resolution, Sand noted that "the prospect of rebuilding the Red Sea safe passage around the corner is nonexistent."
This means that container ships will remain on new longer routes for the foreseeable future, which effectively "dealt with the trade crisis," Sander explained, despite higher rates.
"The exchange rate between Asia and Europe, which was about US $1,000 per barrel in October, has now stabilized around US $4,000, but the uncertainty in the transaction has subsided."Sand said.
Sander said that the increase in logistics costs will have an impact on low-cost goods with smaller profit margins, but high-end goods will be able to absorb these additional costs.
Sander said:"The impact of these rate hikes on inflation is present, but should not be overstated. This is different from a year ago and will not have a significant impact on inflation.。”
It is difficult to ignore the unfolding humanitarian tragedy in Gaza and Israel, however, so far the impact on shipping has been limited, with only some minor damage, although the RubyMar damage, if confirmed, may not affect it, and some of the seafarers on board the hijacked Galaxy Leader are currently being held hostage.
Trade was also limited by the war. At least in this sense, the logistics situation in the Middle East can be classified as "could be worse".
While that view is not, as the Saudi Arabian Red Sea Authority put it this week, "the fascinating beauty of the Red Sea, where every wave carries the promise of a sustainable future," it has eased current economic tensions in Western democracies.
However, in order to achieve lasting and stable trade routes, the current political and military conflicts must also be resolved in a positive and just manner. This should appeal to all participants.
Make global trade unimpeded
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