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From 2024 onwards, the air cargo market is showing signs of cooling.
Feb 20,2024
The latest data show that the air cargo market is starting to cool after the red sea crisis and the Chinese Lunar New Year pre-boom caused a good start to the year.
AccordingWorldACDIn the sixth week of 2024, China's exports fell by 2 per cent from the previous week, while imports fell by 15 per cent.
The slowdown comes after a "recent surge" in shipments outside China, as shippers "rush to ship ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday".
WorldACD expect inbound and outbound tonnage to decline further this week.
Looking back over the past two weeks, trading volumes have also shown signs of slowing, with global demand down 3% compared to the previous two weeks.
WorldACD said: "The 3 per cent decline in global tonnage was mainly due to a 7 per cent decline in freight volumes in the Asia-Pacific region, while intra-Asia-Pacific freight volumes fell by 17 per cent, and the intra-Asia-Pacific market clearly reacted faster to the arrival of the Chinese New Year holiday than major long-distance markets."
WorldACD has also been pointing out in recent weeks that it is difficult to gauge the potential strength of the air cargo market in the first two months of this year due to changes in the Spring Festival holiday.
The two-week break began on January 21 last year and on February 10 this year.
WorldACD said: "Preliminary analysis suggests that this year's pattern is broadly similar to last year's, although global tonnage is so far much higher than last year's. But the relative timing of the Spring Festival is markedly different."
The agency added that "by the end of this month, the situation will be clearer".
Taiwan freight forwarding Dimerco also found that in the eve of the Spring Festival, the market has been slowing down.
"As the Chinese New Year approaches, the air freight market is showing a sluggish trend, reflecting sluggish demand, a limited shift from sea to air freight, coupled with the Red Sea crisis."
"As demand slows, airlines expect several flights to be canceled during the Chinese New Year holidays due to reduced cargo volumes, creating additional challenges for the industry."
Dimerco even reported that some manufacturers had closed their plants early because of reduced demand.
Earlier this week, the freight forwarderScan Global Logistics(SGL) said it also believes the air cargo market will cool once the Chinese New Year is over.
"We do not expect this to continue and our assessment remains that developments in recent weeks are related to the last peak before the Lunar New Year, particularly the impact of Red Sea delays, prompting shippers in Europe and the US to use air freight to avoid empty shelves and stock-out," the company said."
The agency added: "Considering that the traditional airlift peak season in November and December was also stronger than expected, it all points to a steady improvement in the freight airlift market from a volume perspective after a difficult post-epidemic landing."
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