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Stop operations! The U.S. route is facing a double crisis of freight rates and volume! | Maritime Export Logistics
Jul 17,2025
"Peak season is not so peak, off-season comes earlier and winter may be colder than last year.” This is not meteorological forecast but transpacific route’s latest mantra.
One route suddenly "evaporated"
Last week, shipping giant MSC issued an announcement to directly cut off Pearl's West Coast route. Immediately after that, China Shipping urgently stepped on the brakes - six 2400 to 2800 TEU small ships originally prepared to return to West Coast were collectively "on standby." The reason is only one: there is no cargo.
Data is more biting than sea breeze.
The forecast of the National Retail Federation (NRF) is like a bucket of ice water: July can still breathe, 2.36 million TEUs, an increase of 14.6%, which looks beautiful. On August 1st, the tariff stick fell, and the import volume instantly dropped by 11.9%, directly diving into double digits. In September and November, it was even worse: a year-on-year decline of 19.9% → 19.2% → 21.3%. The traditional peak season has only a shelf life of 30 days before being quickly frozen in the off-season.
The truth behind the 1,700 bonded warehouses "exploding"
In Q4 last year, US retailers began to stockpile frantically, resulting in more than 1,700 bonded warehouses across the United States becoming "three-dimensional parking lots." The cargo is still in the warehouse, but orders have been canceled. Xie Zhijian, former chairman of Yang Ming Shipping, bluntly said: "Shippers are going out of inventory, and shipping companies are reducing capacity. Both sides are racing."
Freight rate avalanche scene, US West Coast spot price: $1,700 - $1,900 for a 40-foot container, rubbing against the cost line. US East Coast spot price: $3,200 - $3,400 for a 40-foot container, still making a profit of $700 - $900, making it the last "blood package" for shipping companies. Small ships are even worse: non-alliance vessels under 3,000 TEUs, running at a loss every trip, directly anchoring in place.
Price Increase "Wolf is coming" On the evening of the 15th, many shipping companies announced that starting this Friday, the price for West Coast routes will increase to $2,100 - $2,500. However, freight forwarders rolled their eyes and said, "The volume of goods cleared on Friday has already dropped by 20%. Increase? I'm afraid it won't be lonely."
The Tariff Script Is More Complicated
Than Sea Conditions On May 11, the 90-day tariff grace period between China and the United States → On June 1, the shipping company violently increased the price for West Coast routes from $3,000 to $6,000. On June 3, the volume was lower than expected → Freight rates collapsed and fell below $3,000 within 20 days. On July 9, an ultra-low price of $1,700 appeared → It was $300 lower than the cost of some alliance ships. Zhonglian Shipping originally planned to return six small vessels to the West Coast at a cost of $6,000, but the script reversed too quickly and the fleet was disbanded directly.
The last struggle of shipping companies: MSC cuts routes, Maersk stays silent. Price increase: $1700 → $2100 "paper wealth", will be revealed on Friday. Transfer port: West Coast is losing money, East Coast has become a "safe haven".
Tariff policy is like a hurricane in the Pacific, and shipping companies and freight forwarders are just sailors on deck. High season? Probably in Trump's tweets.
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