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With a record container volume, the shipping industry is ushering in a new era of turbulence and opportunity.
Nov 29,2024
The world's leading analystsJohn McCownGlobal container volumes have remained at record levels for two consecutive quarters. According to container trade statistics (CTS), the third quarter container volume reached4712.2millionTEU, compared with the second quarter4644.5millionTEUGrowth1.5%, the highest value during the year-on-year outbreak.2021in the first quarter4615.5millionTEUGrowth2.1%.
On a daily basis, global container volumes in the third quarter were equivalent to daily shipments.52.3millionTEU. This number not only highlights2024The extraordinary year of the maritime industry also reflects the new normal of a surge in demand during the epidemic, driven not by spending on services, but by consumer spending on goods.
Data show that in the third quarter, U.S. imports increased significantly year-on-year, respectively.21.6%,19.5%and10.9%This further confirms the close connection between global trade and US trade.
Against this backdrop, it is not surprising that liner companies make substantial profits.John McCownmentions that, in addition to operators with unpublished accounts, in particular Mediterranean Shipping (MSC), total third quarter net profit for the industry as a whole268US $100 million, compared with the second quarter.102billion dollar growth164%, YoY2023Year over the same period28billion dollar growth856%.
McCownThe Red Sea crisis is seen as a key influence on global trade, especially as the extension of the Asia-Europe route consumes the world.8%liner capacity and pushed up in stock freight rates, especially on the trans-Pacific route, where demand growth is strongest.
Han Xin Shipping (HMM）2024The net profit margin for the third quarter48.9%ahead of other competitors.McCownIt is pointed out that the increasing differences between liner companies are mainly caused by customers, routes and ship utilization.
ClarksonsThe data shows that the total number of orders in hand is currently750Ship, total789millionTEU, accounting for the existing fleet26%. Although this is a large number, it has not weakened the willingness of liner companies to order new ships.
Liner companies still have strong demand for charter of medium-sized container ships, looking to lock in early2025Ships of the year and longer. The latest transaction case is6612TEUof"Cap Andreas"The Wheel,ONEextend its lease5Annual, daily rent41000S. dollars, the lease will be2025Rent from the third quarter of the year.
Looking ahead, the outlook for global trade looks more "volatile" than ever, with "more uncertainty" the only certainty ". Several key events will affect the market in the coming months, includingILA-USMXDeadlines for talks, Trump's inauguration, Chinese New Year and the launch of new alliances.
Past experience and the latest liner company third quarter results show once again that the more volatile the market, the more buoyant the demand for shipping. The more sanctions, regulations and disruptions and the more complex they are, the better it may be for the shipping industry to make money, because the shipping industry exists to find and satisfy the pain points of customers.
In short, the container market has indeed changed significantly, and the supply chain itself has not become more vulnerable. If anything, it is liner companies that are over-investing in new ships and terminals that now have a more resilient supply chain, and shippers may now have to pay a premium for that resilience.
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