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It's odd! Exports to China and Russia have fallen sharply, but Japan has achieved its first trade surplus in 23 months.
Jul 27,2023
Recently, according to a report from Xinhua News Agency in Tokyo, the trade statistics released by the Ministry of Finance of Japan on the 20th showed that as the year-on-year increase in imports was much greater than the increase in exports, Japan's trade deficit in the first half of this year reached 6.96 trillion yen, and the trade deficit has been from the second half of 2021. Continue to this day.
Japan's trade deficit fell 12.9 percent in the first half of this year from a year earlier, but remained huge in the first half of 2022 as Japan's trade deficit hit a record high for the same period since statistics.
However, according to monthly data released on the same day, Japan had a trade surplus of 43 billion yen in June, the first surplus since July 2021.
Since the second quarter, China's foreign export orders have shrunk sharply. In June 2023, China's merchandise exports were $285.32 billion, down 12.4 percent year-on-year, and $1663.43 billion in January-June, down 3.2 percent year-on-year.
Export orders to Japan fell more than the overall level. In June 2023, China exported $12.491 billion billion to Japan, down 14.3 percent from a year earlier, and $79.34 billion billion to Japan in the first half of the year, down 4.7 percent from a year earlier.
But Japan's exports were 8.744 trillion billion yen in June, up 1.5 percent from a year earlier. About $62.9 billion, equivalent to 22% of our exports in June. This is also the 28th consecutive month of growth in Japan's exports of goods.
In fact, in May, Japan's foreign trade deficit had a tendency to reverse, with a year-on-year decrease of 42.0, and the trade deficit was 1372.519 billion yen.
In June, the value of imports and exports denominated in yen, of which exports increased slightly, up 1.5 per cent year-on-year; imports continued to maintain a double-digit decline, down 12.9 per cent year-on-year. One rise and one fall, especially the sharp drop in imports, achieved a trade surplus of 43 billion yen in June.
Japan's exports to China and ASEAN continued to decline significantly. Among them, exports to China fell by 11% (for seven consecutive months) and exports to ASEAN fell by 6.7.
In addition, Japan has always strongly opposed Russia's invasion of Ukraine and has always supported economic sanctions against Russia. In June 2023, Japan's exports to Russia 70.99 billion yen, down 53.8 percent year-on-year.
For the first half of the year as a whole, trade between Russia and Japan stood at 806.8 billion billion yen, down 41.65 percent from the same period last year.
Among them, Japan's exports to Russia fell 17% year-on-year to 239.9 billion yen, and imports from Russia fell 48.2 percent to 566.9 billion yen.
However, for the United States and the European Union, double-digit growth continued, increasing by 11.7 per cent and 15.5 per cent respectively.
In 2022, Japan's exports to the United States and the European Union (in dollar terms) will increase by only 3.2 percent and 2.3 percent, respectively.
Japan's surplus in June this year actually has a certain "seasonality".
Since May is Japan's Golden Week holiday, exports usually fall (similar to Chinese New Year). After entering June, Japan began to process orders due to holiday delays, so exports will increase significantly.
Another driver is the massive export of cars. In June, the main driver of Japan's export growth was transportation equipment, which accounted for 24.5 per cent of total exports, up 38 per cent from a year earlier.
Among them, car exports increased by 49.7 (to a record 1.57 trillion yen, of which car exports to the United States increased by nearly 60 per cent), aircraft exports increased by 41.3 per cent, and shipbuilding exports increased by 32.8 per cent.
In addition, the export weight is larger and the growth rate is obvious also construction and mining machinery and equipment, an increase of 45.8. Although made in Japan is defeated on the consumer side, there are still many irreplaceable existence in the upper reaches of the industrial chain.
However, these increases are also seen as a reaction to the low base effect in the US in 2022.
After the epidemic subsided, the U.S. auto market quickly recovered, while Japanese auto production began to gradually ramp up. However, the follow-up car sales still depends on the resilience of individual consumption in the United States.
In its comments, Japan's Kyodo news agency also said that the reasons for the trade surplus are: first, the increase in exports of automobiles, etc.; second, the rise in resource prices tends to stabilize, resulting in a decrease in imports such as crude oil; third, although imports continue to grow, the growth rate of imports is lower than that of exports.
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