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Bloomberg: Trump's 30% tariffs on China may be maintained until the end of 2025 | Marine export logistics

May 17,2025

U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods are likely to remain at 30 percent after a 90-day truce, a level expected to severely limit Chinese exports to the United States, according to analysts and investor surveys, Bloomberg reported.

Among the 22 financial professionals surveyed from Asia, Europe and the United States, views were divided: seven thought tariffs would fall below 30 percent in six months, while six predicted they would rise. If a final trade deal is reached between China and the United States, tariffs could be reduced to 20%.

The current tariff policy has already had a significant impact on trade between China and the United States, and is expected to cut 70 percent of China's exports to the United States in the medium term.

DNB bank economist Kelly Chen believes that the trade talks may only produce a superficial agreement, not enough to achieve fundamental change. Respondents generally predicted that Trump's first-term tariffs would remain unchanged because lowering them could anger his supporters.

Source: Glencore

By the end of 2025, the yuan is expected to remain at 7.2 yuan to the dollar, according to estimates from Bloomberg Economics. EFG Asset Management economist Sam Joachim pointed out that Trump's tariff policy is one of the key variables affecting the global economy this year, and the market still faces a high degree of uncertainty.

Uncertainty persists in the U.S.-China trade relationship, and the market's expectations for tariff policy after the 90-day truce are clearly divided. Despite the possibility of an agreement, the space and timing of the tariff adjustment remain unclear. Companies and investors need to closely monitor the progress of negotiations and be prepared for various scenarios.

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