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Sudden! Russia has no hope of returning to SWIFT? It plans to implement the "largest" sanctions in 3 years!
Feb 24,2025
Following the escalation of EU and US sanctions against Russia and the outbreak of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine three years ago, Britain suddenly announced that it would impose the "largest" sanctions on Russia in three years, prompting global attention. What does the UK mean by this? What impact will the sanctions have? Could the Russo-Ukrainian War end this year? Can Russia return to SWIFT? Let's go into more detail today.
The calculations behind UK sanctions
On February 23, 2025, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy announced that the UK would unveil a major package of sanctions against Russia on February 24, claiming that it would be the largest sanctions on Russia since the conflict with Ukraine and aimed at weakening Russia's military power.
Since the conflict broke out in February 2022, Britain has imposed sanctions on 1,900 individuals and organizations linked to the Russian government, covering financial, aviation, military and energy sectors, including asset freezes, travel bans and trade restrictions.
The sanctions come against the backdrop of direct contact between the US and Russia after US President Donald Trump took office to restart dialogue on the crisis in Ukraine, which and European countries feared being marginalized. British Prime Minister Mark Stamos plans to visit the United States next week to try to act as a "bridge" between the United States and Europe and persuade the United States to give Ukraine security guarantees.
The British sanctions are ostensibly in support of Ukraine, but they have more complicated considerations. On the one hand, Britain is mostly showing loyalty to the United States, and the U.S. attitude on the Ukraine issue has changed since Trump took office. The UK and other European countries are uneasy. By increasing the sanctions against Russia, the UK has shown that it firmly stands with the US on the Ukraine issue, avoids being "pulled in" by Russia, and hopes to gain more support and voice in US-EU relations. On the other hand, Britain may try to maintain its position in Europe, the current international situation is complex, not to stand in the international telecommunication center. Britain will take this opportunity to enhance its presence and influence in European international affairs.
Can sanctions solve the problem?
Will this really solve the problem for the UK? I'm afraid not necessarily. Russia, a country with a strong military and abundant resources, is capable of responding to British sanctions and could also take countermeasures that would increase tensions between the two sides. Since the outbreak of the war between Russia and Ukraine, many countries have imposed sanctions on Russia, although they have had an impact on Russia's trade, the Russian economy is now growing in reverse.
For Uganda, while British sanctions and assistance can provide some help, they cannot solve the root cause of the problem, and Uganda needs a peaceful solution. Britain's tough stance may make negotiations between Russia and Ukraine more difficult, prolong the conflict, and inflict greater losses on Ukraine, which makes it quite tempting. Russia will never accept coercion. Today, Zelensky faces double pressure at home and abroad, both from the domestic population and from US President Donald Trump, and is in a difficult situation.
It is worth noting that not only the UK but also the EU and the US are considering or confirming sanctions against Russia in 2025. In addition to sanctions against Russia, the EU will also continue to give economic support to Ukraine. It plans to provide 13 billion euros of direct financial support to Ukraine in 2025 through the "Ukraine Fund," mainly for maintaining the stability of its economic operation and financial system. From January 2025, Ukraine will provide 18 billion euros of loans through the G7 framework, and the repayment guarantee is the proceeds of frozen Russian sovereign assets. In a joint statement in February 2025, the eight Nordic and Baltic countries emphasized expanding aid to Ukraine and strengthening their central role in the peace negotiations, reflecting the common position of EU member states in supporting Ukraine.
The Russian-Ukraine War and the SWIFT Problem
Trends in the war between Russia and Ukraine and changes in national policies affected the stability of international markets, with serious financial implications, such as Russian payment problems. Foreign trade practitioners are concerned about whether Russia will be reintegrated into the SWIFT system if the Russian-Ukrainian war ends in 2025.
At present, there is a lot of uncertainty, the most obvious being the sanctions against Russia. Even if the war ends, the lifting of sanctions policy will not necessarily coincide with the war. Western countries (especially the United States and Europe) have imposed sanctions on Russia in many fields, including finance, energy and trade, and they continue to increase. The lifting of sanctions requires a comprehensive consideration of geopolitical and economic interests and international consensus, not just the end of a military conflict.
In addition to the British sanctions against Russia, on February 19, 2025, the European Union is promoting the 16th round of sanctions against Russia, including further cutting off more than 10 Russian banks from the SWIFT system. It suggests that even if the war ends, Western countries may continue to maintain or even strengthen certain sanctions to achieve their political and economic goals.
Russia is not unprepared. After being excluded from the SWIFT system, it has taken a number of steps to reduce the impact, such as setting up its own Financial Information Transfer System (SPFS), which is now accessible to several countries and financial institutions; Actively strengthen bilateral settlement mechanisms with other countries and reduce dependence on the US dollar and the SWIFT system
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