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Export market to meet the east wind: the RMB exchange rate fell below the 7.25 mark!
Nov 13,2024
In the globalized economic structure, every fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate affects the nerves of the market.11Month12On the day, the offshore yuan fell one after another against the dollar.7.23,7.24,7.25Pass, Highest Report7.2548, set8A new low since the beginning of the month. At the same time, the spot exchange rate of the onshore RMB against the US dollar also fell below.7.22,7.23,7.24Pass, Highest Report7.2401, also refreshed8Low since the beginning of the month.
From a macro point of view, the strength of the US dollar and the moderate depreciation of the RMB may stimulate the export of domestic products in the short term, thus stimulating economic growth. For trading enterprises, the increase in the settlement of RMB in US dollars means that the actual profits that enterprises can obtain will increase. However, exchange rate fluctuations also pose challenges, especially in terms of period matching and business strategies, and companies need to be more flexible in responding to the impact of exchange rate fluctuations.
At the micro level, trading enterprises need to pay attention to the matching of exchange rate and account period, which will directly affect the positive impact of exchange rate fluctuations. Enterprises need to adopt flexible operations to deal with exchange rate fluctuations in cooperation, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, which often need to make profits according to the actual situation in order to obtain a stable long-term source of customers.
CITIC Securities said in a research report that Trump's proposed tariff increase may put pressure on the RMB exchange rate from the two dimensions of market risk appetite and China's foreign trade fundamentals. At the same time, its "high tariffs+The policy mix of "domestic tax cuts" could lead to stickiness in U.S. inflation, which in turn could affect the dollar index. Outlook2025In 2010, after Trump's victory, external disturbances or the biggest risk factors for the RMB exchange rate included a strong dollar under a soft landing of the U.S. economy and the potential risk of additional tariffs on China.
Uncertainty about geopolitical risks may also exacerbate the volatility of the RMB exchange rate through capital flows through channels such as direct investment and portfolio investment. If geopolitical risks develop beyond expectations, the possibility of the RMB exchange rate falling below its previous high cannot be ignored.
In terms of domestic factors, with the expected weakening of external demand, if the domestic demand-related stimulus policies continue to maintain intensity, it may be able to hedge the impact of external risks on the RMB exchange rate to a certain extent. The central bank has sufficient reserves of exchange rate stabilization instruments to help prevent large unilateral fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.
The fluctuation of RMB exchange rate is the result of many factors. In the current complex international economic situation, enterprises and investors need to pay close attention to exchange rate movements and take appropriate risk management measures to deal with possible market fluctuations.
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