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Freight rates continue to rise! The European line rose 700-1000 US dollars on the 15th, while the US and the West fell back.
Nov 11,2024
just the latestSCFIThe freight index rose slightly, rising for three consecutive weeks, with freight rates on all major routes except the US and West rising, while freight rates on European lines continued to rebound due to the reduction measures. The industry has mixed views on future freight rates, with geopolitics, rising costs and tariff wars likely to affect future freight rates.
Shanghai ExchangeThe latest container export freight index (SCFI) released on the 8th was 2331.58 points, up 28.14 points from the previous week, and the weekly increase converged to 1.2 per cent. Among the four major routes, with the exception of the US-West route, freight rates from the Far East to Europe and the Mediterranean, and from the Far East to the US-East all showed an upward trend. Among them, Southeast Asia routes rose the most, reaching 12.13 percent, while the U.S. West Line fell 2.01 percent.
The container ship company has informed this month15The freight rate per large box on the European line will rise5200-5500Dollar, about up700-1000U.S. dollars, each family is different, the U.S. line has no price increase plan.
After the implementation of the reduction measures for the European line, the freight rate performance of the Far East to the European line was relatively strong this week, and the freight rate rebounded continuously. The freight forwarding company pointed out that although the peak season in the shipping market has passed, the price increase of the European line mainly depends on the reduction of class control and the shipping company's plan for next year.1The strategy of pushing up the price of the new month.
In contrast, the U.S. line had a smaller decline, and this round of rebound was not as strong as the European line. Due to the shortage of goods in the fourth quarter, the freight rate of the U.S. line is expected to be gradually reduced, and the freight rate of the U.S. West Line has fallen below this week.4000USD, maintained3700-3900S. dollars, while the U. S.4500-4600between dollars.
Although the increase has converged from the previous two weeks, the industry still has different views on the future trend of freight rates. Some people believe that the freight rate in the fourth quarter is expected to remain high, and the long-term contract price of European and American lines in the first half of next year may be better than this year, which will provide confidence for the operation of shipping companies.
Shipping giants Maersk and Meisen Shipping both reported good operations in the third quarter, benefiting from higher freight rates, and both companies were optimistic about their fourth-quarter profit momentum.
In addition, a number of shipping companies put forward their views on the market outlook for next year, pointing out that the geopolitical problems of the Red Sea have not changed, and there is a large demand for ships bypassing the Cape of Good Hope, and they will continue to detour next year. In the context of rising costs, freight rates are easy to rise and fall. At the same time, the long-term contract price of the US line in the first half of next year is better than that of the same period this year, and the market price of the European in stock is also higher than that of the same period last year. It is expected that the contract price of the European line will also rise next year.
On the other hand, after Trump's election, the market is worried that the tariff war may break out again, leading to the recent emergence of the North American line pull effect. Although the fourth quarter is not the traditional peak season for shipping, freight rates show an upward trend under the effect of space exclusion. This multi-factor is expected to push up the performance of the market.
Although the increase in the container export freight index has converged, the future trend of freight rates is still affected by a variety of factors. Shipping companies need to pay close attention to market dynamics and flexibly adjust their operational strategies to cope with potential risks.
According to the latest freight rate data:
In terms of the US line:
Far East to West AmericaFreight rate4729USD/FIRE, down from the previous period97USD, down2.01%;
Far East to US EastFreight rate5281USD/FIREUp from the previous period.23USD, up0.44%.
Far East to Europe freight rate, considering11The number of flights has been adjusted as the month begins to enter the traditional low season. However, demand increased after the 11 holiday, pushing freight rates to rebound.
Far East to EuropeFreight rates reach2451USD/TEUUp from the previous period.99Dollar, weekly gains4.05%;
Far East to the MediterraneanFreight rate3055USD/TEUUp from the previous period.148USD, up5.09%.
Other routes:
Persian Gulf RouteFreight rate per box1489Dollar, Week Down27USD, up1.79%;
South American Line(Santos)Freight rate per box5931Dollar, Week Down428Dollars,Decline6.73%;
Near-Ocean Line Middle, Southeast Asia Line(Singapore)Freight rate per box601Dollar, Week Up65USD, up12.13%.
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