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[Hongde Information] Stoppage Record! Shipping companies canceled 149 voyages, with the three major alliances accounting for 78.5 per cent!
Jan 13,2023
Hongde International learned that container shipping rates fell sharply again in the first week of the new year after finally stopping the decline and rebounding in the week at the end of 2022. Facing the dual pressure of sluggish demand and capacity growth, the container shipping market may enter the "Great Depression" of continuous recession in 2023 ".
According to new data released by the Shanghai Air Exchange, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) fell 46.41 points to 1061.14 points, from a small rise of 0.04 per cent in the week at the end of last year, and the decline widened to 4.19 per cent, exceeding market expectations, with freight rates falling on major ocean routes except the Mediterranean route.
New Route Index:
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The freight rate per TEU on the Far East to Europe line fell US $28 to US $1050, down 2.5 per week.
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The freight rate per TEU on the Far East to Mediterranean line rose US $5 to US $1855, up 0.27 per cent on the week.
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The freight rate per FEU from the Far East to the US West fell US $9 to US $1414, down 0.63 per week.
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The freight rate per FEU from the Far East to the East of the United States fell 222 US dollars to 2845 US dollars per week, a decrease of 7.2.
In addition, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) plunged 17.5 per cent on January 3, the largest one-day decline since 1984, as demand for ships weakened. On January 11, it fell again by 4.84 to 1043 points, the lowest level since September 1 last year.
Industry insiders believe that from the data point of view, the overall market trend in 2022 is relatively weak in both the centralized and bulk markets. The formation of weak total demand for foreign trade is the main reason for the decline in prices in the global shipping market, the global shipping market downturn, supply and demand are the main drivers of lower prices in the domestic shipping market.
Projected shipping prices in 2023Less likely to rise sharply
According to Chen Jia, a researcher at the Institute of Monetary Studies at Renmin University of China, "Looking ahead to the global trade growth pattern in 2023, the challenges remain severe and the negative factors have been magnified. The deepening stagflation in Europe and the United States led to the growing probability of its recession boots landing, the global trade volume and price downturn, this year to reproduce last year's container strong counter-attack significant growth situation has some difficulty."
Mr. Xu, who is engaged in cross-border e-commerce business in Foshan, said, "I have always been very concerned about the price of shipping containers, because it is highly linked to the company's operating costs. From the earlier" one box is hard to find ", the price has become much more friendly. It has been reduced a lot, and we expect that there should be no possibility of a sharp increase in 2023."
"As the Spring Festival approaches, the unit price of some land container trucks has increased to a certain extent. Compared with the end of last year, it has indeed rebounded, but the increase is not significant. It is estimated that the possibility of a sharp increase in the past is very low." Some Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao Great Bay Area logistics outlets said.
Tian Yuan, an associate researcher at the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation of the Ministry of Commerce, believes that the shipping market is a relatively competitive market, and the shipping price is a full manifestation of the market supply and demand relationship.
In international shipping, the capacity of ships and containers is gradually released and growing rapidly, and the mismatch between supply and demand leads to a continuous downward trend in market freight rates.
On the one hand, the deep dependence on global trade prosperity and stability of the shipping market this year prices are still highly under pressure; on the other hand, with the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention and control policy, is conducive to the full release and is expected to boost the total demand for domestic and foreign trade, the probability of a stable price decline also exists.
Cancel 149 voyagesThe three major alliances account for 78.5 percent
Currently, global transport demand continues to decline, and shipping companies continue to suspend shipping on a large scale to reduce capacity.
According to new data from Deluri, of a total of 707 scheduled voyages on major trade routes across the Pacific, Atlantic and Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean, 149 voyages were canceled in the second week (January 9-15) to the sixth week (February 6-12), with a cancellation rate of 21%.
During this period, 58 per cent of the suspensions occurred on the eastbound trans-Pacific route, 31 per cent on the Asia to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean route and 11 per cent on the westbound trans-Atlantic trade route.
In the next five weeks, THE Alliance has announced the cancellation of up to 54 voyages, followed by Ocean Alliance and 2M Alliance, with 46 voyages and 17 voyages respectively. During the same period, non-shipping alliances implemented 32 suspensions.
Deluli said that before the Lunar New Year (January 22), although the pre-holiday freight peak did not arrive as scheduled, the spot freight rate showed greater flexibility. This week's Deluli WCI Composite World Container Index showed that freight rates on the Shanghai-Rotterdam route rose 10% month-on-month.
However, this small rebound seems fragile as carriers continue to cancel more voyages as the market is expected to have excess capacity in 2023.
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