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[Hongde Information] 6.9! 6.8! 6.7! RMB exchange rate "six consecutive rise"!
Jan 11,2023
Hongde International learned that in 6.9, 6.8 and 6.7, the 2023 opened for 6 trading days,The central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has stepped out of the "six consecutive rises" and entered the 6.7 yuan range, reflecting the market's expectations for China's economic growth this year, and market confidence has risen significantly.
On January 9, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar reported 6.8265, a new high since August 22, 2022, and an increase of 647 basis points. On the same day, both offshore and onshore RMB trading recovered the 6.8 yuan mark. On January 10, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar was reported at 6.7611, another sharp increase of 654 basis points. So far, this round of rebound started in November last year, the central parity of the RMB against the US dollar has risen by more than 6%.
On the whole,The main reasons for this round of RMB exchange rate appreciation are that China's economic repair is improving, the inflow of foreign capital is increasing, and the willingness to settle and sell foreign exchange seasonally is increasing.In 2022, China's economy will withstand the pressure and maintain a stable trend. Recently, thanks to the remarkable effect of the steady growth policy and the rapid recovery of economic activity, China's assets and even the RMB exchange rate more premium, the RMB exchange rate has been able to move forward in a basket of currencies.
The increase in cross-border capital inflows has strongly supported the RMB exchange rate.The optimization and adjustment of China's policy on epidemic prevention and control has also led to more optimistic and positive expectations of China's economic outlook for 2023, further enhancing the attractiveness of the market and investment. Wind data show that in the first week of 2023, the stock market northbound funds accumulated a net purchase of 20.019 billion yuan. At the same time, exporters' seasonal collection and settlement of foreign exchange will also strengthen the RMB exchange rate before the Spring Festival each year.
in addition,Affected by factors such as the weakening of the Fed's interest rate hike expectations, the US dollar index has continued to fall recently, which is also one of the thrusts for the strengthening of the renminbi.The US manufacturing and non-manufacturing purchasing managers' index continued to decline, and the risk of a hard landing increased. Wind data show that since November 2022, the dollar index has fallen by more than 6%.
The sharp rebound in the RMB exchange rate since the end of last year and the continuous growth of foreign capital inflows fully reflect that the international financial market is firmly optimistic about China's economic development and full of confidence in economic fundamentals such as prices. In the medium to long term, the RMB exchange rate will remain volatile in both directions, but will continue to strengthen overall. For market entities and regulatory authorities, the next step is to further strengthen the awareness of risk-taking, do a good job of scenario analysis and stress testing on the basis of strengthening the monitoring and early warning of domestic and foreign economic situations and cross-border capital flows, and draw up response plans to be prepared.
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