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Feb 27,2024
IMF raises global and China growth forecasts for 2024
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) recently raised its growth forecast for China's economy and emerging Asian economies in 2024. At the same time, based on the resilience of growth in major economies such as China, the International Monetary Fund raised its global economic growth forecast for this year by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1 per cent. The International Monetary Fund pointed out that the increase in China's economic growth forecast reflects the continuation of the higher-than-expected growth momentum of the Chinese economy last year and the leading role of the Chinese government's relevant policies.
In 2023, China's GDP will exceed 126 trillion billion yuan, an increase of 5.2 percent over the previous year. China is still the largest engine of global growth. Since the beginning of this year, high-quality development has made solid progress. In January 2024, the level of economic sentiment picked up, releasing a positive signal of economic performance in the opening year.
Red Sea tensions continue, global supply chain risks rise
On February 19, local time, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces issued a statement stating that they had successively carried out missile strikes on a British freighter and two American freighters sailing in the Gulf of Aden. On the same day, the Council of the European Union announced the launch of escort operations in the Red Sea and Gulf region to safeguard its commercial and security interests. Analysts believe that the tension in the Red Sea is expected to continue for some time, and the multi-party impact on the global economic trade and supply chain industry chain has gradually emerged.
According to the statistics of Clarkson Research Company, the total tonnage of ships entering the Gulf of Aden from February 5 to 11 has decreased by 71% compared with the first half of December last year; the traffic volume of container ships in that week decreased by 89% compared with the level in the first half of December last year. EU Commissioner Paul Gentiloni, who is in charge of economic affairs, said recently that due to the change of route of shipping through the Red Sea, the shipping time between Asia and the EU has increased by 10 to 15 days and the transportation cost has increased by about 400 percent.
British media: Saudi Arabia allows Chinese science and technology enterprises to invest and reach huge deals
According to a report on the British "Financial Times" website on February 19, Saudi Arabia has increased its demand for China's technology transactions. According to the report, as it uses its oil wealth to promote the development of the domestic technology industry, Saudi Arabia allows well-known Chinese technology companies to invest in the Gulf country and reach huge deals.
In recent years, China's TOP Technology Group Alibaba and Shang Tang Technology have reached deals worth hundreds of millions of dollars with Saudi Arabia to set up joint ventures in Saudi Arabia.
US to spend big to replace Chinese-made cranes at ports
According to the Wall Street Journal and the US Consumer News and Business Channel (CNBC) on February 21, the Biden administration plans to spend a huge amount of money to manufacture freight cranes in the United States to replace Chinese-made cranes operating in US ports, thus eliminating people's "worries".
The move is part of the Biden administration's efforts to bolster cybersecurity at U.S. ports, and the Coast Guard issued a security directive requiring foreign-made cranes currently deployed in strategic seaports to meet certain digital security requirements.
New EU product liability law to be introduced
The EU has reached a provisional agreement on the proposed revised text of the EU Product Liability Directive 85/374/EEC (PLD). The Product Liability Directive establishes a strict liability (I. e. no-fault) regime that enables claimants to seek compensation for defective products throughout the EU.
At present, according to the interim agreement, the following key contents are sorted out for reference:
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The definition of the product is expanded: the product covers software and digital files. The protocol text takes a broad approach, including embedded and stand-alone software, with the exception of only certain open source software developed or made available outside of commercial activities.
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Expanding the concept of defects: introducing strict liability for defects such as software updates, artificial intelligence (AI), and machine learning.
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Extending the scope of damage: Damage includes medically recognized mental health damage and destruction or irreversible damage to data, such as the deletion of files from the hard drive.
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The scope of the defendant was expanded: new liability was imposed on the online market and, in some cases, service providers and those who made "substantial modifications" to the product outside the control of the original manufacturer.
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New evidentiary disclosure requirements: New evidentiary disclosure requirements (currently not applicable in all EU Member States under existing rules) were introduced by harmonizing rules on when courts can order early disclosure of documents.
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In some cases, the burden of proof is reduced: for example, in scientifically or technically complex cases, it is difficult for the victim to prove responsibility. The European Commission has previously said this could include vaccines, medical devices and products using artificial intelligence technology.
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Dramatically extend the long-term withdrawal period for the slow onset of symptoms: from the current 10 years to 25 years.
France electric car subsidy reform measures change
Le Monde reported that there will be two important changes in French electric vehicle subsidies in 2024. One is that the scope of subsidies will be determined based on the carbon footprint, and models made in Asia will be excluded; the other is that the subsidy amount will be reduced from 5000 euros to 4000 euros. The above reform measures will reshuffle the electric vehicle market, and the proportion of subsidies will be reduced from 80% in 2023 to 41% in 2024.
The top-selling Dacia Spring, Tesla Model3 and MG MG4 models are expected to see a sharp decline in share due to the loss of subsidies, while the share of traditional manufacturers such as Fiat, Citroen and Renault is expected to increase. Manufacturers are currently saving sales by reducing prices and promoting new models. At the same time, cutting subsidies will increase the average price of electric vehicles, adding to the current weak market. With the reduction of subsidies and the launch of new models, the competition in the French electric vehicle market will be more intense in the future.
Uzbekistan will strengthen the quality inspection of imported photovoltaic panels
Uzbekistan spot reported that the Uzbek cabinet recently passed the "On Promoting the Development of Renewable Energy and Related Regulatory Measures" decree, stipulating that imported equipment and materials related to the use of renewable energy will be provided with 120 days of interest-free deferred customs tax treatment, and the interest-free deferred period will be extended to 6 months for importers who have no bad record of violation in the past three years. At the same time, further strengthen the quality control of relevant imported equipment, since March 1, the import of photovoltaic power generation panels without quality grade is prohibited, and relevant departments are required to establish laboratories to evaluate whether imported renewable energy equipment meets the requirements of technical regulations.
Importers will be required to submit certification applications to the Ukrainian Scientific Testing and Quality Control Standards Center through the "single window" customs system.
India's proposed abolition of low tax principles poses challenges for Chinese companies
According to the latest news, the Indian Ministry of Finance will consider the abolition of the low tax principle in India's anti-dumping investigations at the Federal Budget Conference to be held from January 31 to February 9, 2024. If adopted, this change will no longer calculate the damage margin separately, but directly use the dumping margin as the anti-dumping duty rate. It is worth noting that India considered the possibility of abolishing the low tax principle in 2019, but failed to reach a consensus. It is on the agenda again this year. If it is passed, the relevant laws will be amended and applied to new anti-dumping investigation cases. In view of the fact that most cases in India are closed with a lower damage margin, if the principle of low tax is abolished, the dumping margin is bound to increase significantly, which will adversely affect Chinese enterprises in the Indian market.
In the past, the application of the principle of low tax makes enterprises obtain relatively low anti-dumping tax rate under the lower damage range. The abolition of the low tax principle will make the dumping margin the final tax basis, increase the actual tax level, and bring a greater burden on Chinese enterprises in the Indian market. Chinese companies may face a tougher competitive environment in the Indian market, and the increase in taxation levels may make their products more expensive in India, which correspondingly weakens the market competitiveness.
The United States launched an anti-dumping and countervailing investigation against Chinese paper plates.
On February 15, 2024, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued an announcement to initiate an anti-dumping investigation on paper plates (Certain Paper Plates) imported from China, Thailand and Vietnam, and a countervailing investigation on paper plates imported from China and Vietnam. This case mainly involves products under U.S. Customs Code 4823.69.0040, and may also involve products under 4823.61.0040, 9505.90.4000 and 9505.90.6000. The tax number is for reference only, and the specific product description shall prevail. According to U.S. statistics, the U.S. imported about $0.138 billion of the products involved from China in 2023. The dumping investigation period in this case is from July 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023, and the subsidy investigation period is from January 1, 2023 to December 31, 2023.
Interested parties in the case may log on the website of the U.S. Department of Commerce (https://access.trade.gov/login.aspx), to obtain case-related information and participate in related investigative procedures. According to the US investigation procedure, the US Department of Commerce usually determines the dumping and subsidy compulsory respondent enterprises within 20 days. If an enterprise wishes to respond to the lawsuit, please inform the Trade Remedy and Investigation Bureau of the Ministry of Commerce through the local commerce department (Tel: 010-65198906).
Documents relating to the case can be accessed through the following link:https://www.trade.gov/initiation-antidumping-and-countervailing-duty-investigations-certain-paper-plates-peoples-republic
US and Europe announce 'devastating' sanctions against Russia
Recently, US President Biden announced a new round of more than 500 sanctions against Russia to increase pressure on Moscow. The European Union and the United Kingdom have also joined the ranks of sanctions against Russia. The Council of the European Union has also formally passed the 13th round of sanctions against Russia. The British government announced more than 50 new sanctions against Russia. The acting Deputy Secretary of State of the United States has declared that new sanctions imposed by the United States and the European Union on Russia will be "devastating".
Panama Canal 2023 Fiscal Year Revenue Increases Nearly 15%
According to the annual report released by the Panama Canal Authority, the revenue of the Panama Canal in fiscal year 2023 (October 1, 2022 to September 30, 2023) was $4.968 billion billion, an increase of 14.9 percent over fiscal year 2022. The annual report shows that in the 2023 fiscal year, the cargo traffic of the Panama Canal was about 0.511 billion tons, a decrease of 1.5 percent from the previous fiscal year; the total revenue from ship traffic was 3.348 billion billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 10.6 percent over the previous fiscal year.
Source: People's Daily, Ministry of Commerce website, Focus Vision
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