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Click here to learn about the strongest growth point of US foreign trade in 2023
Feb 19,2024
Overall trend analysis
In December 2023, U.S. imports and exports were $421.97 billion, down 1.54 percent month-on-month (from the previous month) and 1.66 percent year-on-year (from a year earlier), and imports and exports were $5191.69 billion in January-December, down 4.51 percent year-on-year, with an upward trend in the last 12 months.
Figure 1 Trends in U.S. imports and exports in December 2020-2023 ($billion)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Figure 2 US import and export value and growth rate in December 2012-2023 (US $billion)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
On a monthly basis, U.S. imports and exports were generally lower than in the same period last year.
Figure 3 A brief analysis of the annual cycle of U.S. import and export amounts from 2020 to 2023.
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
structural analysis
According to the statistics of imports and exports respectively, the import value of the United States from January to December was 3172.533 billion US dollars, down 5.91 percent year-on-year; the export value was 2019.16 billion US dollars, down 2.23 percent year-on-year.
Figure 4 Trends in U.S. imports and exports (billions of dollars)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Figure 5 Trend of U.S. deficit amount (billions of dollars)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Inlet side analysis:
According to partner statistics, from January to December, the top 10 import trading partners of the United States were the European Union, Mexico, China, etc. Among them, the United States had the largest import scale from the European Union, with a value of US $589.77 billion, a year-on-year increase of 3.67; the highest growth rate of imports from Mexico was US $480.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.58; overall, among the top 10 partners, 3 maintained year-on-year growth rate.
Table 1 Top 10 Trading Partners of US Imports from January to December 2023
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Decomposing by pull, U.S. imports from China dragged down the overall growth rate by 3.77 percentage points, imports from ASEAN dragged down the overall growth rate by 1.03 percentage points, and imports from Mexico pulled up the overall growth rate by 0.62 percentage points. (Note: The pull here is the ratio of the change in the amount of imports of this trading partner during the year to the total value of imports for the same period last year.)
Figure 6 Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. imports in December 2020-2023 (by partner)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
According to statistics of commodities (major categories), from January to December, the top 10 imported commodities in the United States were "mechanical and electrical products (chapters 84-85)", "transportation equipment (chapters 86-89)", "chemical products (chapters 28-38)" and so on. Among them, "mechanical and electrical products (chapters 84-85)" ranked first in scale, with an amount of US $922.56 billion, down 3.13 year on year. "Transportation Equipment (Chapter 86-89), the amount was US $418.6 billion billion, an increase of 14.93 per cent over the same period last year; overall, three of the top 10 commodities (categories) maintained year-on-year growth.
Figure 7 U.S. imports from the world and year-on-year growth rate, January-December 2023 (by commodity category)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
By pull, U.S. imports of "mineral products (chapters 25-27)" dragged down the overall growth rate by 1.62 percentage points, "transportation equipment (chapters 86-89)" pulled the overall growth rate by 1.61 percentage points, and "base metals (chapters 72-83)" dragged down the overall growth rate by 1.02 percentage points. (Note: The pull here is the ratio of the change in the amount of imports of this category of goods during the year to the total value of imports for the same period of the previous year.)
Figure 8 Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. imports in December 2020-2023 (by commodity category)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Calculate the year-on-year growth rate of the price and volume of all itemized goods imported from the United States (accurate to HS10), with a total of 20225 goods participating in the calculation. In terms of trade prices (cumulative value), the import prices of 20225 commodities fell by an average of 0.41 per cent from January to December 2023, a decrease of 9.69 percentage points from a year earlier. In terms of trade volume (cumulative value), from January to December 2023, the import volume of 20225 commodities fell by an average of 13.14, and the growth rate was 20.11 percentage points lower than the same period last year. (Note: The median method is only a statistical estimate and has an error with the true price situation, but has the advantage of being simple, stable and internationally comparable, and each economy often publishes its own estimated price situation, which researchers can look up on their own.)
Figure 9 Comparison of U.S. import price and volume growth in December 2021-2023
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Outlet side analysis:
According to partner statistics, from January to December, the top 10 export trading partners of the United States were the European Union, Canada, Mexico, etc. Among them, the scale and growth rate of US exports to the European Union ranked first, with a value of US $368.76 billion billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.12 percent.
Table 2 Top 10 Trading Partners of US Exports from January to December 2023
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
According to the degree of pull, US exports to the EU drove the overall growth rate by 0.87 percentage points, exports to Brazil dragged down the overall growth rate by 0.44 percentage points, and exports to Switzerland dragged down the overall growth rate by 0.43 percentage points. (Note: The pull here is the ratio of the change in the export value of this trading partner during the year to the total export value of the same period last year.)
Figure 10 Year-on-year U.S. export growth in December 2020-2023 (by partner)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
According to statistics of commodities (major categories), from January to December, the top 10 export commodities of the United States were "mechanical and electrical products (chapters 84-85)", "mineral products (chapters 25-27)", "transportation equipment (chapters 86-89)" and so on. Among them, "mechanical and electrical products (chapters 84-85)" ranked first in scale, with an amount of 433.66 billion US dollars, up 1.31 percent year on year. "Transportation Equipment (Chapter 86-89), the amount was US $284.52 billion billion, up 15.89 per cent year-on-year; overall, five of the top 10 commodities (broad categories) maintained year-on-year growth.
Figure 11 U.S. exports to the world in value and year-on-year growth rate, January-December 2023 (by commodity category)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
By pull, U.S. exports of "mineral products (chapters 25-27)" dragged down the overall growth rate by 2.78 percentage points, "transportation equipment (chapters 86-89)" pulled the overall growth rate by 1.89 percentage points, and "jewelry (chapter 71)" dragged down the overall growth rate by 0.76 percentage points. (Note: The pull here is the ratio of the change in the amount of exports of this category of goods during the year to the total value of exports for the same period of the previous year.)
Figure 12 Year-on-year growth rate of U.S. exports in December 2020-2023 (by commodity category)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
Calculate the year-on-year growth rate of the price and volume of all itemized goods exported from the United States (accurate to HS10), with a total of 9987 goods participating in the calculation. In terms of trade prices (cumulative value), from January to December 2023, the export prices of 9987 commodities increased by an average of 2.01, a decrease of 4.12 percentage points from the same period last year. In terms of trade volume (cumulative value), from January to December 2023, the export volume of 9987 commodities fell by an average of 4.90, and the growth rate was 8.91 percentage points lower than the same period last year. (Note: The median method is only a statistical estimate and has an error with the true price situation, but has the advantage of being simple, stable and internationally comparable, and each economy often publishes its own estimated price situation, which researchers can look up on their own.)
Figure 13 Comparison of U.S. export price and volume growth in December 2021-2023
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
short-term forecast
Based on the historical trend analysis of U.S. import and export amounts, without considering external factors, the Prophet algorithm is applied to forecast U.S. import and export amounts to be $413.992 billion, $404.963 billion, and $449.419 billion, respectively, in the next three months, down 3.35 percent, up 2.00 percent, and down 1.23 percent year-on-year, respectively. (Note: Prophet is an open source library for time series prediction developed by Facebook(META). Prophet model is a time series prediction method based on additive model, which combines trend, seasonal and holiday effects to model and predict time series data. It should be noted that Prophet model is a statistical-based method, which assumes certain regularity and predictability of time series data.)
Figure 14 Analysis and forecast of the trend of total import and export value of the United States in March 2021-2024 (US $billion)
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Global Trade Watch (GTF) system
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