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US Trucking Market: Is a Rebound Soon?
Jan 18,2024
According to analysis, U.S. in stock truck freight rates rose only slightly in December last year, with an average increase of 3 cents/mile, and the average price was $2.26/mile.
The survey showed that in September and October of 23 years, the average freight rate for more than 4000 lanes over 250 miles was 2.27 US dollars/mile, 1 cent higher than in December.
In theory, the peak season of truck transportation has not passed, because after the end of the year, many people began to return goods one after another during the black 5. and Christmas shopping holidays. The truck freight in stock market is a bellwether of industry trends. In early 2024, the truck market freight volume, the number of equipment, the number of carriers decreased, the contract freight volume increased, prices are still facing downward pressure.
Data show that at the end of 23, the truck market benefited slightly from the seasonal peak season, with little fluctuation. There is no indication that there is sufficient momentum for a significant increase in freight rates in January 2024 from their third-quarter 2023 lows, when freight rates were between $2.25 and $2.27 per kilometer.
Looking back at January 2022, freight rates peaked at $3.38/mile, reaching a low of $2.23/km in April 23, and prices have changed no more than 5 cents since then.
In December 2022, the average freight rate, including the fuel surcharge, is $2.56/km. The average price gap with the same period last year is slowly narrowing, from 32 cents/km in November to 30 cents/km last month, and also lower than 76 cents/km in April last year.
Some analysts said the current annualized pricing gap and post-winter weakness in freight demand suggest that in stock truck rates will not change significantly in the near term.
Chart: Truck freight rates remain flat since summer
Last Tuesday, the chief analyst of a company said in a market update that the volume of in stock market after loading remained at about half of a year ago. Last week, the average freight rate on the company's 50 busiest routes was $2.05/mile, down from $2.07/mile in July 23.
In the company's five in stock trucking markets (Atlanta, Chicago, Dallas, Elizabeth, Los Angeles, New Jersey), the line transportation rate (excluding fuel surcharge) increased by 1 yuan in the first week of January, with an average of $1.70/km. Texas, especially Dallas-Fort Worth, has the strongest pricing and volume.
However, cargo or shipments in the first week of January were down nearly 20 percent from the long-term average, while equipment cargo was down about 25 percent from the long-term average.
According to relevant agency data, the current freight rate will not change significantly in the short term, and the loss of small truck operators is not enough to cause capacity tightening. Although the market hopes that freight rates will rise, the problems of low volume and continued low freight rates continue to force small companies out of the industry.
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