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Send money to China! Up to $18 billion! South Korea trade deficit with China reappears
Dec 22,2023
A few days ago, according to the news released by the South Korea Trade Association and the Ministry of Industry, Trade and Resources, before this yearIn 11 months, South Korea exported US $114 billion to China and imported US $132 billion from China, with a trade deficit of US $18 billion.
Time interval31 years! $18 billion!
According to the South Korea "Asia Daily" report, excluding the first year of the establishment of diplomatic relations between South Korea and China1992year,South Korea Trade with China31Recreating the annual deficit,The scale once accounted for the total South Korea exports.1/4,The pattern of trade with China, which is the backbone of the South Korea economy, has undergone drastic changes.
FromDuring the 16 years from 2003 to 2018, with the exception of 2008,China has been the South Korea's largest trade surplus country,But now this pattern is happening.A 180 degree shift.
The data shows that,South Korea trade with China this yearJanuary starts with $3.9 billion deficit, $18 billion trade deficit,Continuously11 months failed to make a surplus.The size of the deficit is second only to Saudi Arabia, the South Korea's largest oil importer,In second place.
From negative to positive, China's industry is growing rapidly.
But with China achieving self-sufficiency in most of its raw materials,Import demand from South Korea has declined; on the contrary, the rapidly developing secondary battery market in South Korea now requires large quantities of essential materials and minerals to be imported from China. Coupled with the South Korea exports to China's main product semiconductor market downturn, resulting in a gap in the trade balance.31 years back in deficit.
At the same time, the rapid development of various industries in China has gradually reduced the share of South Korea products in the Chinese market.
South Korea petrochemicals were the third largest export to China in 2019, behind semiconductors and displays.
At that time, China's self-sufficiency rate of petrochemical raw materials was only60%, but has been able to reach 90%-100This has led to a sharp year-on-year drop in South Korea petrochemical raw material exports this year.21%. The report pointed out that, with the exception of some high-end products, the export of South Korea products to China has all been "red light".
South Korea Trade Association this yearAccording to a report released in June, China's export self-reliance has increased significantly in the past seven years, with intermediate materials and parts products as the core.
In the case of displays, for example, China's export self-reliance has been fromIn 2015-0.137 became0.899 in 2022(the closer1 indicates a higher degree of self-reliance), while South Korea display's export competitiveness to China continues to decline.
Even high value-added products such as South Korea cosmetics, which were once popular in China, have been squeezed out of the market by France and Japan. The middle and low-end market is occupied by Chinese local products, and the situation of South Korea products is even more embarrassing.
China-South Korea Trade Structure Changes
"Asia Daily" analysis believes that the main reason for the large-scale deficit in the trade balance with China is the change in the export structure. In the past, South Korea exported intermediate materials to China, which were manufactured and processed by China and then exported to the world.
In addition, the report believes that in addition to the impact of the industry on South Korea exports to China, geopolitical risks such as Sino-US trade frictions and China's macroeconomic situation are also important variables.
Xiang Haoyu, a distinguished researcher at the Institute of Asia-Pacific Studies of the China Institute of International Studies, said in an interview with a reporter from the Global Times,The main reason for South Korea trade deficit with China is the change of trade structure between China and South Korea.
In particular, as a major South Korea exporter of memory chips by the industrial cycle and weakening external demand, exports to China plummeted,It is the direct cause of the trade deficit with China.
In addition, the Yin Seok-yuet government pursuesThe "pro-US and pro-China" policy has also damaged the atmosphere of China-South Korea economic and trade cooperation. China's enthusiasm for cooperation with South Korea has declined. Some Chinese consumers have alienated South Korea mid-to-high-end consumer goods and also affected South Korea exports to China.
South Korea central bank this monthaccording to the report released on the 4th,As the technological level and competitiveness of China's export products continue to improve, there will be competition for South Korea products in the global market,It is necessary for South Korea to further enhance the competitiveness of foreign exports, and at the same time improve the current export structure that is excessively dependent on the Chinese market through diversification of export markets.
At the moment, South Korea's predicament can be described as a two-sided attack, in the continuous trade with China.At the time of the 11-month deficit,The United States is also implementing a manufacturing return plan with great fanfare.
Some Korean media lamented: Now we are sending money to China in turn!
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