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Crazy cut Hu made in China, this will be the next "world factory"?
Nov 28,2023
recently, according to data released by the us government,In the first nine months of 2023, Mexico was the largest trading partner of the United States, with bilateral trade of nearly $600 billion billion.
Since then, Mexico has beaten Canada and China to become the main trading partner of the world's largest economy.
Mexico has become the largest economic and trade partner of the United States.
Recently, according to the data,From January to September, the two-way trade between Mexico and the United States reached 599.79 billion billion US dollars. This represents a 2.1 percent increase compared to the same period in 2022 and a 59 percent increase compared to 10 years ago.
Before this yearIn nine months, trade between Mexico and the United States accounted for 15.7 percent of the total trade between the United States and all of its economic partners, and exports to the United States hit a record high of $356.25 billion. This represents a 4.3 percent increase compared to the same period last year.
Canada-US trade accounts for total15.3 percent, and U. S.-China trade 11.1 percent. In the first nine months of this year, U. S. trade with both countries declined year-on-year.
Trade between Mexico and the United States stood at $67.11 billion in September, down from $70.77 billion in August. Despite the month-on-month decline, Mexico was the largest trading partner of the United States in September.
Mexico's exports to the United States include a variety of goods, including automobiles, auto parts, crude oil, electronics, fruits and vegetables, meat, and beverages such as beer and tequila.
Mexican exports to the United States were $39.54 billion in September, down from $41.75 billion in August. On a year-on-year basis, Mexican exports to the United States fell 5.1 percent in September, the biggest drop in more than three years.
In addition, according to the Bank of Mexico,Mexico's exports to the United States accounted for 83.7 percent of the country's total exports in September.
Mexico appears to be on track for a It will remain the largest trading partner of the United States until the end of 2023.
Mexico's independent economist MarioCorrea said Mexico needs to have a "diversified supply chain".
and need to ensure compliance with the rules set by its most important trading partners"increasingly important" environmental, social and corporate governance standards to maintain strong economic ties with the U.
China's exports to the US fall
China sinceSince about 2008, it has surpassed Canada to become the largest importer of the United States. In recent years, however, as the curve has turned sharply downward, it has eventually been surpassed by Mexico and Canada, respectively.
In another sense, the most important economic and trade relationship in the world is Sino-US trade. China is the world's largest manufacturing country, and the United States is a super consumer power. The United States seems to import the most goods from China.
However, Mexico and Canada have surpassed China in export data to the United States, which represents a major turning point in global trade and even geopolitics.
Prior to this, during the administration of George W. Bush and Obama, it was a period of harmonious trade between China and the United States, and the data on China's exports to the United States rose rapidly.20% share, which is exactly the strongest decade of China's economic development.
But after Trump took office, the situation reversed, and the data began to decline rapidly as the well-known Sino-US trade war began.
Especially after Biden took office, on the one hand, China's ranking declined significantly, on the other hand, Mexico began to grow rapidly.
ASEAN exports to the United States have been growing rapidly since the Trump administration, and then stopped at a high level,There has been a slight decline since 2022.
Thus, it can be seen that the change in the ranking of exporters to the United States is mainly caused by a change in policy.The trade war changed everything.
In addition, the new version of the North American Trade Agreement introduced by Trump has also made Mexico, which is also in North America, more conducive to exporting to the United States. This is also the reason why ASEAN and Asian exports to the United States have declined.
This situation fromData for the second half of 2022 show that China's exports to the U.S. grew at a 3.8 percent year-on-year rate in August 2022.
Since then, the decline has widened month by month, 11.6 per cent, 12.6 per cent, 25.4 per cent and 19.5 per cent, although the December slowdown was somewhat recovered but the decline was still quite severe.
In terms of trade structure, U.S. consumption of electronics declined significantly during the epidemic, while this share of Chinese exports to the U.S. was relatively high, which is also an objective reason.
But anyway,It is a fact that China's share of exports to the United States will decline rapidly in 2023. Fundamentally speaking, this is caused by the cooling policy environment behind Sino US trade.
economic and trade relations between china and mexico
It is worth mentioning that China and Mexico are also very important trading partners.At present, China is Mexico's second largest trading partner in the world, and Mexico is also China's second largest trading partner in Latin America.
Therefore, China, Mexico and the United States still form a complete industrial chain.
This situation is similar to Vietnam. Although Vietnam has replaced a considerable part of the assembly business of end products, raw materials, parts, semi-finished products, and production equipment have to be imported from China in large quantities.
Because China has an extremely clear price and production advantage. Therefore, it is safe to say that in the short term, it is basically impossible for these countries to replace China's manufacturing industry.
However, the more serious thing is that even if only the assembly business is replaced, it will have a certain impact on the Chinese economy.
As before, HP computers, UNIQLO these brands, are basically"Made in China", but now they are basically made in Thailand, made in Vietnam, and made in Bangladesh, and the corresponding employment opportunities in China will be greatly lost.
As before, Apple moved its notebook assembly business to Thailand and India.
In addition, China's proud new energy vehicles and auto parts industry will also face positive competition from Mexico.
At present, the world's major automakers are in large-scale layout of Mexico.Therefore, Mexico has surpassed China to become the largest importer of the United States, which is an important symbol of the reconstruction of the global industrial chain.
And this process is likely to continue for a long time to come.
This is more dangerous for China, which has not yet achieved industrial upgrading, as can be seen from the economic downturn brought about by the decline in exports this year.
In addition, although China's manufacturing industry has a complete upstream and downstream industrial chain and scale advantages, there are still many countries competing with it.
The rise of Mexico's manufacturing industry is only a small part of the restructuring of the industrial chain. Vietnam, Thailand, India, Indonesia, etc., when these countries form a cluster effect,"Replacement" will become a real threat.
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