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The decline in exports narrowed! China's August imports and exports down 8.2 percent year-on-year, headwinds weakening
Sep 12,2023
On the 8th, the General Administration of Customs released my country's import and export data for August. The recovery of the world economy is weak, and my country's foreign trade continues to be under pressure. However, under the general trend of negative growth, the monthly data in August showed signs of improvement, and the month-on-month data of imports and exports showed positive growth.
August decline narrows, positive month-on-month growth
According to customs statistics, in the first eight months of this year, my country's total import and export value was 27.08 trillion yuan, a slight decrease of 0.1 year-on-year (the same below). Among them, exports were 15.47 trillion yuan, up 0.8 percent; imports were 11.61 trillion yuan, down 1.3 percent; and the trade surplus was 3.86 trillion yuan, up 7.3 percent.
In dollar terms, the total value of China's imports and exports in the first eight months of this year was 3.89 trillion billion US dollars, down 6.5 per cent. Of this total, exports were $2.22 trillion, down 5.6 per cent; imports were $1.67 trillion, down 7.6 per cent; and the trade surplus was $553.4 billion, up 0.8 per cent.
Judging from the single-month data, in August this year, my country's imports and exports were 3.59 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5 percent and a month-on-month increase of 3.9 percent. Among them, exports fell 3.2 per cent year-on-year and rose 1.2 per cent month-on-month; imports fell 1.6 per cent year-on-year and rose 7.6 per cent month-on-month; and the trade surplus narrowed by 8.2 per cent.
In dollar terms, China's imports and exports, exports and imports fell 8.2 per cent, 8.8 per cent and 7.3 per cent year-on-year in August, down 5.4, 5.7 and 5.1 percentage points from July's 13.6 per cent, 14.5 per cent and 12.4 per cent, respectively, and up 3.9 per cent, 1.2 per cent and 7.6 per cent, respectively.
From the perspective of export destinations, my country's exports to ASEAN, the largest trading partner, have maintained growth, and imports from the European Union and the United States have shown growth.
In the first eight months, the total value of my country's trade with ASEAN increased by 1.6, of which exports increased by 2.8, imports increased by 0.03, and the trade surplus expanded by 10.3.
As my country's second largest trading partner, the EU's total bilateral trade value fell by 1.5 in the first eight months, of which exports fell by 4.4; imports increased by 4.3, and the trade surplus narrowed by 13.4.
As my country's third largest trading partner, the total value of bilateral trade in the United States fell by 8.7 in the first eight months. Among them, exports fell by 11.7, imports increased by 1.6, and the trade surplus narrowed by 17.4.
The headwinds are weakening
"the adverse impact of the three major factors of 'weak external demand, low price and high card' on China's import and export growth is weakening." Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, said.
From the perspective of external demand, although the global economic growth continued to slow down, the economic climate of the United States and some ASEAN countries has improved, superimposed on China's policy support to stabilize external demand, and promote export growth to bottom out.
In terms of prices, international commodity prices have stabilized and rebounded since August, which has boosted the growth rate of imports and exports.
"It is worth noting that even if the price factor is excluded, my country's actual import and export growth rate is still strong. Based on our calculations of the prices of major import and export commodities, after excluding the price factor, my country's actual export growth rate in August has narrowed significantly, and the actual import growth rate The rate may have turned positive." Wen Bin said.
From the base point of view, he said that the year-on-year growth rate of China's exports in August last year was significantly lower than that in May-July last year, indicating that the high base effect is weakening.
Wu Chaoming, vice president of the Caixin Research Institute, also believes that the growth rate of exports to major trading partners in August basically rebounded across the board, with the growth rate of exports to the United States and ASEAN picking up more, indicating that the narrowing of the decline in exports in August was not only affected by the low base effect, but also reflected a weakening of the drag on the slowdown in global demand.
Favorable factors will gradually increase in the future
With the improvement of foreign trade situation in August, the lowest point of year-on-year growth rate of import and export in July can be basically confirmed. Looking to the future, China's import and export continued to improve the favorable factors will gradually increase.
"Leading indicators such as global and national manufacturing PMI show that the downward momentum of overseas economies will improve in the next period of time. Recently, international institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank, and the OECD have raised their global economic growth forecasts for this year.
At the same time, the global semiconductor and consumer electronics industries bottomed out in the fourth quarter and the rebound momentum is also expected to further appear; superimposed on the same period last year, my country's export growth base continued to decline, and the year-on-year decline in my country's export volume is expected to continue to narrow in the next few months." Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Oriental Jincheng, said.
On the import side, with the introduction of a series of steady growth policies, the market is expected to continue to improve, the domestic economic recovery momentum is also expected to strengthen, which will boost the marginal recovery of import demand.
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