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The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been going on for more than a year. What is the current economic and trade situation? | International Logistics | International Freight Forwarder | Guangzhou Freight Forwarder | Panyu Freight Forwarder | Hongde International
May 05,2023
Current Situation of Economy and Trade between Russia and Ukraine
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than a year, and its impact has spread to all parts of the world. As two "parties", what is the current economic and trade situation?
First of all, Hongde small editor to take a look at Ukraine.
According to a report by Xinhua News Agency on April 14, the new zui statistics released by Ukraine's National Bureau of Statistics show that after zui's final verification, Ukraine's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2022 will be 3865.78 billion hryvnia at constant prices, or about 104.7 billion US dollars, down 29.1 percent from the previous year. This is the serious economic downturn that Ukraine has suffered in the past 30 years.
In terms of industries, the industries that were hit hard by zui in Ukraine last year included:Construction, transportation and storage, manufacturing, hotels and restaurants, real estate, electricity, gas and heat supply, mining, wholesale and retail, vehicle maintenance, and agriculture, forestry and fishery.
According to a recent World Bank assessment, Ukraine's post-war recovery costs have risen to $411 billion. At the same time, the World Bank lowered Ukraine's GDP growth forecast for 2023 from 3.3 percent to 0.5 percent.
In addition, the European Commission announced on May 2 that it would temporarily restrict the free trade of four kinds of Ukrainian agricultural products in Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland, Romania and Slovakia, but it can continue to be transported through these countries.
The European Commission said that the relevant measures will take effect from May 2 and will last until June 5. During this period, the origin of UkraineWheat, maize, rapeseed and sunflower seedsIt can continue to be freely traded in EU member States other than the five countries covered by the measures, and can be transported in transit through these five countries. After the entry into force of the measures, Bulgaria, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia undertook to withdraw their unilateral measures against Ukrainian agricultural products.
After the escalation of the crisis in Ukraine, a large number of agricultural products could not be shipped because of the blockade of Black Sea ports. Under the mediation of the United Nations and Turkey, a large number of Ukrainian agricultural products were transported to other regions through Eastern European countries. Due to unresolved follow-up issues such as logistics,Hongde Xiaobian believes that a large number of Ukrainian agricultural products can only be sold in Eastern European countries, which has impacted the prices of local agricultural products and triggered protests by farmers in many countries.
Now let's look at Russia.
With the round after round of sanctions imposed by various countries on Russia, Russian economic entities and other aspects are subject to strict restrictions.
On May 4, it was reported that Russia's GDP fell 1.1 percent year-on-year in March, after a revised 2.9 percent year-on-year decline last month.
Russian Presidential Assistant Oleshkin previously stated that Russia's GDP is expected to grow by 1-2% by the end of 2023.
In addition, according to preliminary statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics of the Russian Federation, Russia's GDP in 2022 was 151.5 trillion rubles (approximately US $2.2 trillion), a year-on-year decrease of 2.1.
Among them, GDP grew 3.5 percent in the first quarter, fell 4.1 percent in the second quarter, 3.7 percent in the third quarter and 4.6 percent in the fourth quarter. In terms of industries, wholesale and retail output fell by 12.7 per cent, manufacturing by 2.4 per cent and transport and warehousing by 1.8 per cent.
Agriculture grew by 6.6 per cent, construction by 5 per cent, governance, military security and social protection by 4.1 per cent and extractive industries by 0.4 per cent.
On the inflation side, the Russian Ministry of Economic Development said that Russia's annual inflation rate fell to 2.55 percent as of April 24 from 2.82 percent a week earlier, the lowest level since March 2020.
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