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Outburst! Plummeted by 40%! The European line dives ......
2024-08-13 09:47
Recently, the container freight rates that have reached record highs in the first half of the year have been significantly loosened. On the one hand, a number of shipping giants began to lower their quotations, and the rate of 40-foot large containers on the Asia-Europe route was reduced from about $9,000 in July to below $8,000 at present; On the other hand, the futures market also transmitted a signal of price loosening, and many contracts of container transportation index (European line) futures fell collectively on the 8th.
The container transportation index (European line) plunged
On August 8, the main contract of container transportation index (European line) futures dived, and the intraday decline once expanded to 15%. A number of contracts of container transportation index (European line) futures listed on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange fell sharply. As of the close, the main contract EC2412 was reported at 2754.9 points, down 15.03%. EC2408 and EC2410 fell 0.40% and 7.77% respectively. EC2502, EC2504, and EC2506 all fell by about 10%. Judging from the situation after the close of trading on the 8th, EC2412 has a deep discount of nearly 20% compared with EC2410, which is significantly different from the off-peak season characteristics of the previous shipping market. From the perspective of the extended cycle, the main contract of the container transportation index (European line) futures soared to 4763.6 points on July 4 this year, the highest point since its listing, and then continued to fall sharply, with a cumulative decline of 40%. From March to July this year, the main contract of container shipping index (European line) futures soared by more than 260%.
The current freight rate has been adjusted
Among them, the impact of the weakening of spot freight rates is particularly obvious. With the seasonal weakening of cargo volume and the increase in supply pressure on overtime vessels, the current freight rate continues to fall. The average quotation value of WK32/33 is $8,280 and $8,180 respectively, down $150 and $100 month-on-month. Haitong Futures pointed out that the second reduction in the opening price of Maersk WK33 also had an impact on market sentiment. Recently, the pace of price adjustment has accelerated, and the shipping company has reduced the price by 200-300 US dollars per round. It is expected that the freight rate center will move further downward in late August, and the frequency and magnitude of the reduction need to be observed in the future. However, there is also news that based on market mechanism considerations, the world's major shipping companies may plan to raise the freight rate of the West and East US routes by 9%-15% from August 15. In addition, the delivery of new ships will make up for the capacity gap under the bypass in terms of total volume and structure, and the overall center of freight rates next year may move downward under the expectation that the cargo volume has not increased year-on-year.
Port congestion eases and capacity increases
Judging from the congestion data at the ports, the tension on the European route has also eased. According to HPL's latest port data, most European port operations remain at a normal level, and the current yard utilization rate of Antwerp port in Belgium is about 70%, the yard utilization rate of Rotterdam port in Netherlands is 70%-75%, the yard utilization rate of Hamburg in Germany is about 75%-80%, and the yard utilization rate of Le Havre in France is about 60%-65%. Judging from the data of container ship capacity in port, affected by the phased typhoon weather, the port capacity of Chinese ports increased by 8.3% month-on-month, the port capacity of ports in Northwest Europe increased by 2.7% month-on-month, and the congestion of Southeast Asian ports continued to ease, and the port capacity decreased by 1.0% month-on-month.
Changes in the geopolitical situation
For the next stage of freight rate trends, it is recommended to pay attention to three marginal changes.
Container ship bypass: Pay special attention to whether the traffic volume of the Suez Canal, Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden continues to be low, and whether the traffic volume of the Cape of Good Hope remains high, which directly affects the efficiency and cost of the route.
Geopolitical situation in the Middle East: Geopolitical uncertainty may affect the navigation of the Red Sea, which in turn will affect the global shipping layout and freight rates. If the situation eases, shipping companies need time to adjust their routes, which will indirectly affect market supply and demand.
Capacity supply pressure: In the short term (until the second week of September), capacity supply pressure is expected to be small, as some of the new capacity is offset by bypasses and port congestion. However, it is necessary to pay attention to the actual situation of subsequent capacity delivery and its impact on freight rates.
Overall. Institutional analysis believes that the overall sentiment of the shipping market is weak recently, and the macro recession transaction is expected to be amplified. In the future, it is necessary to pay attention to the current situation of container ship bypassing, the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and the marginal changes in the delivery of capacity. Judging from the quotations of shipping companies, the freight rate center is expected to decline further from late August to early September.
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