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The European-South American route has plummeted by more than 30%! The worst Q1 in 20 years, container freight rates have plummeted | Maritime export logistics
Apr 07,2025
At the beginning of 2025, the global shipping market lit up a fire of hope, showing strong growth momentum, and many practitioners hoped for a new phase of prosperity.
However, the reality was that China's export container prices (CCFIs) suffered a "waterloo" in the first quarter, falling by 28%, a direct record for the worst first quarter in the past 20 years.
This amazing data comes from the precise analysis of Niels Rasmussen, BIMCO's chief shipping separator.
Opening the books of 23 major liner companies, it became clear that China's export container price index (CCFI) had fallen from a high of 1,548 at the start of the year to 1,112 by the end of March.
Even more egregious was the Shanghai Export Container Price Index (SCFI), which appeared to be on a "jumping plane," plummeting 46 percent from the beginning of the year, setting a new record for the index's first-quarter decline since its inception in 2009.
Looking back on the past, since 2006, CCFI in the first quarter of the average decline of only 2%, the decline of more than 10% of the situation is very few, only four times. Even if the 24% drop in 2023 is heartbreaking, it will not be as painful as the 24% plunge in 2024.
The peculiarity of the market is that although freight prices plummet like a kite with a broken line, the fundamentals once shone attractively. In January 2024, East Asia and Southeast Asia export markets soared 20% year-on-year, and this strong growth momentum has made the industry ecstatic and optimistic about the outlook for the full year.
At the same time, due to the "after effects" of the Red Sea crisis, a large number of ships have no choice but to circumvent the Cape of Good Hope, which has consumed 10% -12% of the world's transportation capacity, which should be a "life saving straw" for transportation prices and provide a solid support. I never realized that my ideals were very full, but my reality was very emotional. 
Europe and the Mediterranean routes have been hit hard, and they have become the main battleground for the collapse of freight prices, with the average freight price "cut" by 33% and 32% respectively since the beginning of the year. Looking south, the North-South route was even worse, with the South African route plunging by 40%, the Australian and New Zealand route falling by 38%, the South American route was not immune, down by 35%, and the West African route was slightly better, but also fell by 26%.
However, amid all this "mourning," the China-Japan route is like a clearing, becoming the only major route not affected by the fall in freight rates. Reassuringly, compared with historical data, average freight prices in the first quarter of 2024 are only 8% lower than in the same period of 2023, and even 39% higher than in 2019.
But don't be blinded by this "little luck," the future shipping skies are enveloped in clouds and uncertainty is swirling. At the behest of the Trump administration, it resumed the plan to impose US import tariffs, instantly casting a thick cloud over the outlook for global trade.
It is important to know that once the "bomb" of trade friction is detonated, it will not only affect US imports, but the world's major trading partners will inevitably fight back, and the train of global economic growth will likely be derailed.
More worryingly, the global container fleet capacity is expected to rise by 5.4% in 2025, while demand growth is slowing significantly, so "fast and slow," the market is likely to become mired in a severe overcapacity. Once the Red Sea crisis is resolved and ships are returning to normal shipping routes, the domino of freight prices is likely to collapse all the way, or even fall back to 2019 levels.
For shipping companies moving ahead amid turbulent waves, the current market is like a lonely boat in a stormy storm. The future of freight rates will be determined by subtle changes in supply and demand, global economic policies and geopolitical changes.
In the face of fog and uncertainty, how to intelligently adjust capacity layout and carefully optimize route resources has become the key "code" for shipping companies to survive and profit in this storm.
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